Measuring Statistics: Near and Far

Stats can be deceiving, or that's what they say. 

I have a few thoughts on SDSU's men's players and how they play at home and away. 

For example, I figured Chad White is a better player at home than on the road, while all-world Nate Wolters plays better on the road. Where is Jordan Dykstra a better player?

So, let's go to the stats. I selected SDSU's home, away and neutral location games, along with games where SDSU won or lost. Players with significant playing time are listed here.

All information is from the always reliable sports-reference.com. Go visit their sites. Sorry about the small print. 

3 Wolters, Nate 

Split            Value  G  MP  FG FGA  FG% 3P 3PA  3P%  FT FTA   FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Place             Home 12 438  78 164 .476 22  57 .386  71  90  .789  11  54  65  66  27   2  31 16 249
                  Road 12 466 104 206 .505 32  71 .451  69  81  .852  18  54  72  59  16   2  27 22 309
               Neutral  2  64  12  25 .480  2   6 .333   8  11  .727   2   7   9  16   3   0   1  3  34

Split            Value  G  MP  FG FGA  FG% 3P 3PA  3P%  FT FTA   FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Result             Win 20 734 140 290 .483 41 102 .402 115 144  .799  21  88 109 117  40   4  46 27 436
                  Loss  6 234  54 105 .514 15  32 .469  33  38  .868  10  27  37  24   6   0  13 14 156 

5 Prince, Taevaunn 

Split            Value  G  MP FG FGA   FG% 3P 3PA  3P% FT FTA   FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Place             Home 11 144 13  35  .371  0   4 .000 21  28  .750  11  12  23   3   4   0   6 10  47
                  Road  9 127 10  33  .303  2   9 .222 11  18  .611   8   8  16   5   3   0  11 22  33
               Neutral  2  60  7  19  .368  1   4 .250  5   9  .556   4   7  11   3   1   0   2  5  20 

12 Carlson, Brayden

Split            Value  G  MP FG FGA  FG% 3P 3PA  3P% FT FTA   FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Place             Home 13 422 28  83 .337 14  47 .298 30  39  .769   5  42  47  31  13   4   9 20 100
                  Road 13 466 42 103 .408 20  60 .333 15  22  .682   6  41  47  30  10   4  17 24 119
               Neutral  2  62  9  19 .474  6  11 .545  5   6  .833   0   6   6   7   1   0   1  4  29
Split            Value  G  MP FG FGA  FG% 3P 3PA  3P% FT FTA   FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Result             Win 21 694 55 137 .401 29  78 .372 39  51  .765   8  72  80  53  19   5  17 35 178
                  Loss  7 256 24  68 .353 11  40 .275 11  16  .688   3  17  20  15   5   3  10 13  70  

25 White, Chad 

Split            Value  G  MP FG FGA  FG% 3P 3PA  3P% FT FTA   FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Place             Home 10 310 35  71 .493 22  47 .468 10  14  .714   8  26  34  16   8   3  13 20 102
                  Road 11 340 28  81 .346 18  59 .305  9  13  .692   8  32  40  10   5   6  14 24  83
               Neutral  2  46  8  15 .533  4   7 .571  2   2 1.000   3   3   6   4   1   1   1  2  22
Split            Value  G  MP FG FGA  FG% 3P 3PA  3P% FT FTA   FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Result             Win 17 514 60 127 .472 36  80 .450 18  23  .783  15  47  62  26  12   6  21 30 174
                  Loss  6 182 11  40 .275  8  33 .242  3   6  .500   4  14  18   4   2   4   7 16  33 

32 Heemstra, Marcus 

Split            Value  G  MP FG FGA   FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA   FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Place             Home 13 154 19  37  .514  0   0     11  14  .786  14  23  37  12   4   6   9 24  49
                  Road 13 148 14  28  .500  0   0     11  12  .917  13  20  33  11   3   5  10 20  39
               Neutral  2  31  9  11  .818  0   0      2   3  .667   7   4  11   2   2   2   0  2  20

34 Fiegen, Tony 

Split            Value  G  MP  FG FGA   FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA   FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Place             Home 13 396  67 109  .615  0   0     20  32  .625  35  45  80  20   6   3  16 23 154
                  Road 13 431  48 103  .466  0   0     16  23  .696  22  44  66  17   6   4  16 23 112
               Neutral  2  34   6   8  .750  0   0      0   0         1   9  10   3   0   0   4  4  12
Split            Value  G  MP  FG FGA   FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA   FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Result             Win 21 626  96 164  .585  0   0     30  45  .667  47  80 127  35   9   4  25 38 222
                  Loss  7 235  25  56  .446  0   0      6  10  .600  11  18  29   5   3   3  11 12  56 

42 Dykstra, Jordan

Split            Value  G  MP  FG FGA  FG% 3P 3PA  3P% FT FTA   FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Place             Home 13 417  67 142 .472 24  45 .533 39  52  .750  28  88 116  23   6   9  26 32 197
                  Road 13 415  49 119 .412 20  53 .377 18  22  .818  26  60  86  14  10   9  28 36 136
               Neutral  2  52   6  14 .429  2   5 .400  1   2  .500   1  10  11   4   0   0   0  4  15
Split            Value  G  MP  FG FGA  FG% 3P 3PA  3P% FT FTA   FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Result             Win 21 657 100 211 .474 38  78 .487 46  63  .730  35 131 166  35  11  12  41 56 284
                  Loss  7 227  22  64 .344  8  25 .320 12  13  .923  20  27  47   6   5   6  13 16  64

--

The takeaways: 

• Look at the difference in the performances from Dykstra and White in losses. 

• Granted, SDSU lost those games for reasons that go beyond those two but it shows how 

   important those two are to the operation.

• Fiegen is a much better shooter at home, converting 15 percent more shots in home games. 

• Heemstra is scary consistent in his game. This is a good sign going forward for SDSU. 

• Carlson has better numbers in road games and even better in the two neutral games this year. He has

  14 games this year where he's scored 10 or more points and five of those have come in Brookings. 

• Wolters' numbers are pretty nuts in both losses and on the road, shooting 29 percent better away from Frost. 

Sometimes your hunch can lead to something after all. 

--
High frequency of basketball posts because there's lots to talk about. If you have an idea, drop me a line in the various mediums to reach a 21-year old college kid. 

Naters Gonna Nate, Part 542

I thought everything had basically been accomplished by SDSU point guard Nate Wolters.

I was wrong. Very wrong.

After a career-high, school-record and NCAA season-high 53 points Thursday against Fort Wayne in a 80-74 win, he's basically proved that the rest of the season is his for the taking.

I'll let the SDSU game recap take some of the details here:

Wolters scored 38 of his points in the second half, one more than the entire IPFW team, finishing the night 17-of-28 shooting overall, 9-of-14 from 3-point range and 10-of-11 from the free throw line.

"They were sagging off of me and my felt pretty good tonight, I was able to knock a couple down and just got into a little bit of a rhythm," Wolters said. "It's a good accomplishment, but it's a big win for us, we had to have it. We knew that they were gonna come out and play hard, they played tough, but we were able to put together a big second half and pull away."

The 53 points not only tops his previous career-high of 36, but breaks the SDSU single-game mark of 44 points, set by Dave Thomas against Coe College on March 10, 1973. His nine 3-pointers tops his previous high of five, set in the season-opener at Alabama, and breaks the SDSU mark of eight, a mark set by Jason Sempsrott on Jan. 12, 1996 vs. North Dakota State, and by Randy Suarez against Augustana on Feb. 7, 1987.

Of course, he's good but the ability to just take over is a skill that few players have. Fort Wayne is one of those places where the building is pretty dead and he made his performance count on a night when the Jacks needed it badly. I'll be curious to see what happens at Oakland Saturday in a must-win ballgame. But as Wolters put it, every game has been a must-win since about mid-December. The Jacks share 1st place with Western Illinois after a three-point loss for NDSU against the Golden Grizzlies tonight.

Earlier this year, I said that I didn't think he would score in bunches at home on a Collegian postgame video. I was wrong because he went for 29 the next game but tonight validates the claim some because I did say that he would have his big games on the road. This will qualify there. At the end of the day, the Jacks need him more on the road because they play much better as a unit at home. 

Wolters is one of two reasons SDSU is the favorite to get back to the NCAA Tournament, along with having the Summit League tournament in Sioux Falls. I would have to say that he gives the Jackrabbits a great chance of getting a win in the Big Dance. He's that good but I'm not telling you anything you didn't already know.

Some of the media from tonight. Check it out as well:

Nate Wolters erupts for 53 points, most by any Division I player this season (Yahoo).

South Dakota State's Nate Wolters scores 53, highest total this season  (ESPN)

Night Court: Nate Wolters gives CBB most points in a game since '09 (CBSSports.com)

Goodbye, 'Roos.

I was going to lead with this but Nate Wolters did his thing, so the Kansas City to the Western Athletic Conference gets bumped. The Kangaroos will be out of the Summit after this year. There's a lot of facets to this, so we'll get to this in bulletpoints.

• At best, this is a lateral move. There's only one way to buy this and that's if the Kangaroos were the third or fourth best basketball team in the conference and were consistently on the cusp of making it to the NCAA Tournament. That's just not the case because their men's basketball program, which should be marquee program for a non-football school, is awful and poorly-managed. 
• Obviously, UMKC has a tough time reading the tea leaves here. Of the nine current members in the conference, SEVEN are leaving the WAC by July 1, 2014. There's a reason everyone else is leaving and they clearly don't see it the same way everyone else does. Denver just left the conference. Was nobody in Kansas City paying attention?
• What's left is not Murderer's Row: California State University, Bakersfield; Chicago State University; Grand Canyon University; New Mexico State University; Seattle University, The University of Texas-Pan American and Utah Valley University.
• The WAC is not anymore of an airplane league than the Summit. Let me know if you find any cheap flights to Las Cruces, N.M.
• They are centrally-located in the Summit. The Kangaroos will be the second-most eastern school in the WAC now. More proof geography doesn't matter anymore in conference realignment.
• How does UMKC not address the media with a press conference today. They really don't know what they're doing, do they?
• People need to get over this idea that the Summit is just garbage as a basketball league. It's not spectacular but it's not like it's high Division II either. See the Wolters notes above. Frank Gaines, Travis Bader, Ceola Clark III, Marshall Bjorklund are all great players. I know that Denver is decent this year (Ha, they're coming to the Summit, New Mexico State made The Dance last year and Utah State is usually good.) Two of those teams are leaving and NMSU will try to get out at any moment. Perception is everything and people will likely see that the WAC is a fraud, far from where it was years ago.
• I would be surprised if the Summit disintegrates, which is what is posed here by Kansas City Star writer Blair Kerkhoff. Certainly, Oakland to the Horizon is a real possibility. As it stands, it doesn't make sense for Omaha to leave the Summit right now because they are in the I-29 pact with the Dakota schools. Also, I don't buy that the WAC is looking at SIU-Edwardsville either. 
• Also thrown out there is SDSU and NDSU looking at the Missouri Valley. That is probably a dream scenario for NDSU for sure but SDSU has a lot going for them in the Summit. The conference tourney is in their backyard and they are having great success. The Valley is a basketball league for sure. However, if the offer is there (it's clearly a step up), how do you turn it down? This would only happen with moves by Creighton and Evansville to the Catholic 7 and the Horizon, respectively.

Lots to chew on there. 

One last time

I'll be heading to St. Cloud Friday for the final WCHA regular season series between St. Cloud State and Minnesota for the weekend showdown, which should be a great series. The Huskies are No. 1 in the conference and the Gophers are No. 3 but it's the Maroon and Gold are No. 1 in the Pairwise rankings (which basically decide who gets into the NCAA Tournament) in what is the final season for college hockey's best league as we know it. I'll miss it and I will probably wax poetic about the WCHA on Monday.