Money Talks

There may not be a bigger coaching story in FCS football this year than the news that broke Saturday night with North Dakota State coach Craig Bohl leaving for Wyoming. A main reason: money. Bohl will make a base salary of $300,000 per year and will be guaranteed additional compensation of $450,000 in 2014, a total of $750,000 in year one. That figure will rise by $50,000 in each of the five years of his deal, to the point where he will bring in a total of $950,000 of guaranteed compensation in 2018, if he's still with the Cowboys at that point. Then there's the incentives, which will put him over $1 million if he rides out his contract. The Forum in Fargo had a good graphic on this that I'll refer to here.

The gist of it is this: NDSU had no chance of matching the deal and athletic director Gene Taylor said as much Sunday in a press conference. He also remarked that the school has not been near the top when it comes to compensating its football coach in the Missouri Valley Football Conference.

Bohl’s base salary is $206,500 with annual increases of 5 percent. His performance bonuses, media and appearance fees and ticket sales compensation added up to an estimated $360,000 or more. That is not at the top of the Missouri Valley Football Conference, Taylor said.

“We may structure it somehow differently in terms of how you get to the final number,” Taylor said. “But I don’t see us going back a great deal because we want to get the best coaching candidate out there.”

I found that hard to believe. Bohl has the clause in his contract that gives him 3 percent of the ticket revenue sold for NDSU home games, which is probably in the $30,000 to $40,000 range. There aren't many programs with a clause like that, it appears. He was getting a raise of five percent each year and from June 1, 2012 to May 31, 2013, Bohl made $367,843, according to state payroll records, making him the fifth-highest-paid public employee in North Dakota.

He was doing pretty good and I suspect he's one of the best paid coaches in all of FCS, not just the Valley. For comparison, I pulled up all of the salary numbers I could find for head coaches in MVFC. (Please note: Unless noted, these are base salary figures. Like Bohl, most coaches are being compensated for media appearances for winning conference games or playoff appearances and those figures are not included.)

Illinois State's Brock Spack

Illinois State – Brock Spack: $258,072 (2013), $268,080 (2014)

Age: 51 - Signed through: 2016

Bonuses: $10,000 per playoff game; owes ISU $25,000 if he leaves before the contract expires. $500/month car allowance. 

Indiana State: Mike Sanford: $180,000.

Age: 58 - Signed through: 2017. 5-year deal signed in December 2012.

Missouri State: Terry Allen: $108,211 per season. 

Age: 56 - Signed through: 2014. Was not extended by AD Kyle Moats in 2012 and Moats said the university couldn’t afford to fire/dismiss Allen in 2013. 

North Dakota State: Outgoing coach Craig Bohl: $206,500.   

Age: 55 - Signed a contract extension to stay at NDSU on Jan. 1, 2013 through 2021. His performance bonuses, media and appearance fees and ticket sales compensation added up to an estimated $360,000 or more. Leaving for University of Wyoming at season's end.

Northern Iowa: Mark Farley: $296,280. 

Age: 50 - Signed through: 2015. A previous contract was extended by five years in 2008.

South Dakota: Joe Glenn: $131,060 in 2013-14; one year contract. Age: 64. 

South Dakota State: John Stiegelmeier: $160,012 in 2013-14; one year contract. Age: 56.

Southern Illinois: Dale Lennon: $216,456 in 2012; one year contract.

Age: 52 - Signed through 2014: Received two year extension in 2011. Initially signed for five years in 2007 at $200,000 per year. Notes: If SIU fires him, they owe him a max of one’s salary. If he resigns or leaves for another job, he owes SIU $100,000.

Western Illinois: Bob Nielson: $206,892 in 2013.

Age: 54 - Signed through: 2017. Signed a five-year deal in December 2012.

Youngstown State: Eric Wolford: $200,000 base salary. 

Age: 42 - Signed through: 2014, the final year of his initial five-year deal.

Bonuses: $20,000 for winning a national championship; A $3,000 bonus for each year the Penguins win the Missouri Valley Football Conference; A $3,000 bonus for each YSU playoff game; A $12,000 bonus if the Penguins earn an Academic Progress Rate score of 925 or greater; $50,000 each year for “marketing income,” (TV, radio, speaking engagements, sponsorships); Car allowance worth about $400 per month and membership in a local country club.

Missouri State's Terry Allen

In order, it goes like this (with the years at the school and school record in parentheses): 

UNI's Farley: $296k (13th year, 111-50)

Ill St's Spack: $258k (5th year, 33-24)

SIU's Lennon: $216k (6th year, 42-28)

NDSU's Bohl: $206k (11th year, 101-32)

WIU's Nielson: $206k (1st year, 4-8)

YSU's Wolford: $200k (4th year, 24-21)

Ind St's Sanford: $180k (1st year, 1-11)

SDSU's Stiegelmeier: $160k (16th year, 111-81)

USD's Glenn: $131k (2nd year, 5-18)

MoSt's Allen: $108k (7th year, 33-56)

A few interesting things out of that I'll cover via bullet points:

• The top of the conference gets paid like coaches who could leave someday. That's especially true for Spack, Lennon and Bohl. Nielson got a very good deal for coming from Division II Minnesota-Duluth last year and while Farley has made his home at UNI, there's nothing saying he couldn't try an FBS job someday. 
• Captain Obvious here but South Dakota stands out with one-year contracts. Almost every coach in the conference has received a five-year deal and the one-year deals are an issue. Luckily, both SDSU and USD have stable coaching situations (We think.).
• When Joe Glenn was hired almost exactly two years ago, he was starting at $126,000, very close to what John Stiegelmeier was making at the time at SDSU. He told the Yankton Press and Dakotan that he wanted USD to have more money for assistants. Meanwhile, Stig has jumped up to $160,012 this season. It makes sense, with SDSU making the playoffs twice and having more athletic revenues than USD in each of those years. 
• Interesting to compare Glenn's deal to the one that Bohl will be getting at Wyoming, where Glenn was the coach from 2003 to 2008. Glenn's first deal had a base salary of $140,004 per year for five years. With all of the incentives, it would bring him up to as much as $550,000 per year. Bohl will make a minimum $750,000 this upcoming season, without accounting for any additional incentives.
• Wow. Missouri State is in bad shape. Terry Allen probably would have been fired twice by now if the Bears had any money. But they don't and he's likely a lame duck head coach heading into his final year of his deal. This is why they've had to play two FBS games per year and Allen has not fared well there. I'm shocked to see him so low on the list and while there's some bonuses in play, he's much further down on the salary list than I first thought.
• Seven of the ten coaches in the league are between the ages of 50 and 56. The only outliers are the considerably younger Wolford, and Sanford and Glenn, who have both made FBS head coaching stops.
• UNI basketball coach Ben Jacobson makes $512,151 per year, twice as much as colleague Mark Farley. But Farley didn't bring his team to the Sweet Sixteen in 2010. 
• NDSU, South Dakota, Western Illinois and Youngstown State are the four schools that spend more money paying their football coach than their men's basketball coach. Given that most of the schools are in the basketball happy Missouri Valley Conference in the winter, that's not much of a surprise. The widest margin between the two is probably in Macomb, where Jim Molinari makes about $117,000, $93k less than the football coach Nielson. SDSU coach Scott Nagy has a base salary of $200,000 per season.

 

Thanksgiving Takeaways

For the first time ever, South Dakota State hosted a playoff football game in Brookings. The game drew 4,367 fans for the 58-10 SDSU blowout, well below SDSU's season average of 13,338 over the course of five home games this year.

Me, the curious type, wanted to put the numbers in perspective. So I rounded up the attendance numbers from the last four years of first round FCS playoff games and compared them to what that host team had averaged during the season. The numbers shine a harsh light on the showing today in Brookings.

(Note: The 2012 season figures are up to Nov. 23 and do not include the playoffs. For the sake of time, I used the NCAA attendance average for each team for 2009, 2010 and 2011 and the season averages include the playoff game and games following. Even though the averages are not perfect, it gives you an idea of what their usual draw is. )

 

A few takeaways here:

• SDSU drew roughly the lowest percentage of its average fanbase for its playoff game at 33 percent. That's not good. I think I remember laughing at Eastern Kentucky for outbidding James Madison in 2011 and drawing as few as they did but that's basically what happened with SDSU, except I think it was worse. As a few pointed out to me today, it only emphasizes the theory that Jackrabbit fans pack it in during the month of November unless it's a rival or Hobo Day.
• Some simple hypothetical math: If every fan in attendance was an adult (obviously we know that wasn't the case) and paid $25 per ticket, the gate would have totaled $109,175. Factor in the minimum bid of $30,000, knowing SDSU likely bid higher and know that the NCAA will take most of it of that end figure. 
• Was the bid worth it? Yes. SDSU was at home and didn't have to worry about travel. They had 4,000 fans who were as loud as 4,000 can be. And SDSU won by 48. It's still a success.
• There was about 12 solid rows of students. Maybe Brookings businesses will pay for students to get free tickets again but I wouldn't count on it.
• Wagner drew a SEASON-HIGH today for the first round. They had some low figures all year and then were able to bring in over 3,000 for their win over Colgate today. I'm impressed. Stony Brook did the same in 2011. The Seawolves charged $14 for adults and $10 for youth during today's playoff game against Villanova. 
• There will be eight games on Thanksgiving weekend next year when the FCS playoff field expands from 20 to 24. 

Kriens: The Poll Truth

Editor's Note: Travis Kriens is good friend of Traxler's Take and staff assistant for media relations at Tennessee State University. He is also a voter in the weekly Sports Network Top 25 FCS Poll.

What is the purpose of polls in sports?



In every sport not named Football Bowl Subdivision level college football, a playoff at the end of the regular season decides the eventual champion. FBS is also the only sport that takes the top two teams at the end of the regular season and faces them off to determine that season’s champion. Besides that, what is the reason we rank teams week after week?

In this week’s Football College Subdivision media poll, there are two examples of confusion.



South Dakota State is the first team receiving votes outside of the Top 25 and has a 5-2 record. Indiana State is ranked #15 and has a 6-2 record. These two teams played last month in Terre Haute, Ind., and Jacks soundly defeated the Sycamores, 24-10. Those that have Indiana State ranked over SDSU will argue ISU’s 17-14 win at then #1 North Dakota State is proof the Sycamores are the better team. I would argue the 14 points win for SDSU when the two teams faced each other is the reason why I have SDSU (#20) ranked ahead of Indiana State (#21).



There is a similar situation in the Ohio Valley Conference. #18 Eastern Kentucky is 6-2, while #21 Tennessee State is 7-1. TSU defeated EKU 23-20 less than three weeks ago. How you can have EKU ranked ahead of TSU when the two teams played recently and EKU lost is beyond me.



In a month's time, the regular season will be over and this won’t matter much because the FCS selection committee will take over. They'll select the 20 teams that will qualify for the 2012 playoffs and have a chance at the national championship. The polls at that point are meaningless. There will be a few teams inside the Top 20 that don’t qualify and a few teams outside the Top 20 that will and that's far from unusual.

It should be noted that the weekly coaches' poll is no better when it comes to ranking teams. So what is the purpose of ranking these teams week after week?



"I think the polls capture the national landscape,” said Craig Haley, who is The Sports Network Senior Editor/FCS Executive Director. “I think they are a guide for the members of the FCS playoff committee, but strength of schedule and results are important."



There are 121 universities that play at the FCS level. That’s a lot of teams to keep track of, so if the Top 25 does anything, it is used as a barometer. You may watch one or two FCS games a week from start to finish. How do the voters keep track of them and know that team A is better than team B or better than team C?

"Well, so much information is at the tip of our fingers with the Internet, so it's easy to be informed,” Haley said. “I send out a scoreboard to the voters before they vote. Over time, a team's scores usually reflect what kind of team it is."

That is really the only way to do a national poll the takes into account such a large quantity of teams. However, there is no way to watch the amount of games that you would need in order to make an informed and fair decision. As we know, the box score, the stats and the final score don’t always tell the story.



So who makes up the voting population?


"I hope all the voters are objective because The Sports Network wants a widespread panel reflecting all the FCS conferences,” Haley explained. “We have about 175 voters. Personally, I value the bigger conferences a bit more on my ballot, but I like schools that play a tougher schedule."



"I think the depth of the poll speaks volumes,” Haley continues. “We've been around a long time and the FCS schools respect The Sports Network. But in addition to the media, we have voters who are SIDs (Sports Information Directors). I think that can cause a problem if a voter tries to favor his school and conference. I see the ballots and it's not rampant, but it happens."



In last week’s poll, Georgia State picked up their first win of the season to improve to 1-6. They received 23 points in the poll, which is the same as voting a team third in the country. It’s no coincidence that Georgia Southern is a top ranked team and that whoever put Georgia State third meant to put Georgia Southern. Those are the kind of mistakes that can’t and shouldn’t be made by a voter.

Why do voters punish teams for losing to higher ranked teams? For example, if #15 loses to #1, why is #15 dropped in the polls the next week? Are they any worse of a team because they lost a game everyone expected them too? You, the voter, placed them at #15, which says that you don’t think they are as good as the #1 team or any team above them.



Late in September, #21 Montana lost to #7 Eastern Washington on the road by six points and dropped out of the Top 25 to #28. They dropped seven spots for losing a close game that they were expected to lose.



The most polarizing team early in the season was Northern Iowa. A top 10 team in the preseason poll, the Panthers lost four of their first five games to Big Ten foes Wisconsin (26-21) and Iowa (27-16), #3 ranked Youngstown State (42-35) and then #1 NDSU (33-21). Four games that Northern Iowa was not expected to win, all on the road expect for NDSU. People could not figure out how someone could vote for UNI despite being 1-4. They didn’t lose any games to anyone ranked lower than they were. If you vote with the philosophy of ranking the teams one through 25 based on who you think is better, it’s not that far-fetched to consider the Panthers as a ranked team. They did defeat SDSU this past Saturday 27-6 to knock the Jacks out of the polls.



Polls are most prevalent in college sports but in recent years they have made their way into professional sports.

 I don’t know of many things that are a bigger waste of time than putting together or reading NFL power rankings. They matter about as much as your single vote in the upcoming November elections. At the end of the season, the teams with the most wins make the playoffs. End of discussion.

That is not the case in college sports. With so many teams and a wide variety of schedules, you just can’t go by wins and losses. Recently, it seems like voters don’t even go by that anymore.

2011 MVFC Preview: Youngstown State

Today is the final installment of Missouri Valley Football Conference Previews, featuring Youngstown State. To read previous previews, scroll down and click on the links on the right side of the page.

For some reason, I feel like I know this Youngstown State team already. Maybe it's because I've subconsciously learned more about this nine-team conference than anyone would ever need to know or want to know. Maybe it's because I remember YSU head coach Eric Wolford changing from his sideline gear and into a suit at Coughlin-Alumni Stadium last season. (Frankly, there's nothing classier than a suit.) However, it's most likely because the Penguins return a lot of talented starters from last year's 3-8 squad and I've tabbed Youngstown State as my surprise team in the Valley.

Offense
Last year, Youngstown State turned over the keys to the offense to redshirt freshman Kurt Hess. He responded by winning the conference's freshman of the year award and passing for 2,117 yards. Without question, he has room to improve and he could really excel in his second season of full-time quarterback duties. His primary target last year, Dominique Barnes has graduated but look for Ely Ducatel to increase his level of play to become the main man for Hess.

YSU running back Jamaine Cook

Jamaine Cook is a preseason All-American 3rd Team selection at running back and for good reason. Cook ran for 1,276 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, providing explosiveness that the Penguins will need to run the ball effectively. The good news is that Cook won't have to carry the whole load and he'll share duties with Adaris Bellamy, the former University of South Florida signee. Like Cook, Bellamy also scored 11 touchdowns and did it on less than half as many carries. This has a very good chance to be the Valley's best rushing duo and the only battle will be over who gets more carries. The offensive line loses three starters and was exceptional a year ago, allowing just 13 sacks. A pair of junior-college transfers will look to fill in and should do a viable job.

Defense
Youngstown State experienced some difficulties on defense in 2010, which is an anomaly for the Penguins. Their average for opponent's points per game jumped from 22.1 in 2009 to 31.5 a year ago and relinquished an average of 411 yards per game. The good news for YSU is that they return seven starters and that maligned defense should do nothing but improve.

The Penguins return the top three tacklers from last year, John Sasson, Donald D'Alesio, and David Rach. Sasson and Rach both play linebacker and along with Deonta Tate, should lead a solid linebacking corps to fix this defense's problems. D'Alesio will need to help the secondary improve the pass defense, which finished 4th worst in the FCS in defensive pass efficiency and allowed a 63.7 percent completion percentage against them. Those numbers should improve but it will be uphill battle with a secondary that lacks depth aside from corner Jamarious Boatwright.

Outlook 

YSU quarterback Kurt Hess

Youngstown State should accomplish their objectives on offense. They have explosive pieces in Cook and Bellamy, pairing those two with an accomplished and capable quarterback in Hess. Their defense will be up in the air but their defensive marks can only come down after a poor season last year. Last year, YSU lost to Penn State, won the next three games including a win over #13 Southern Illinois, and was actually ranked 20th before losing the final seven games. The Penguins held a lead in all 11 of their games and led in the fourth quarter in seven of those games. Phil Steele notes in his preview that in the last seven losses, five were decided by six points or less and three were decided in the final minute. 2011 will start with another trip to Happy Valley but count on more of those close game going the way of the Penguins this season.

Thanks for reading the series

2011 MVFC Preview: Western Illinois

My series of Missouri Valley Football Conference previews continues today with Western Illinois. Previous entries can be found on the right hand side of this page. 

A dream season would end with a National Championship. Since only one team can accomplish that, Western Illinois will be happy with what they did in 2010. They are the only team in FCS history to have someone finish second in the three major individual award categories. Quarterback Matt Barr was runner-up for the Walter Payton Award (FCS offensive player of the year), linebacker Kyle Glazier finished second for the Buck Buchanan Award (FCS defensive player of the year), and head coach Mark Hendrickson finished second for the Eddie Robinson Award (FCS coach of the year).

It was a great season mainly because of Western Illinois' seven win turnaround from one win in  '09 to eight in 2010. But Hendrickson is the only one who will return to the team this year and that leads one to wonder how WIU will fare this year.

Offense

WIU running back Caulton Ray

The Leathernecks had the third-best offense in FCS football last season, averaging 457.2 yards per game last year. Most of that success was led by Barr, who threw for 3,410 yards and 27 touchdowns in 2010 and found a way to carve up defensive backs around the conference. He also led the only team that beat both NDSU and UNI last season. His primary target, Lito Senatus has also moved on from Macomb due to graduation, leaving questions about the passing attack.

Junior Wil Lunt will probably have a shot at the quarterback spot first. Lunt is Illinois' high school all-time career passing leader (8,383 yards) and made seven starts in 2009 when Barr was out with an injury. Regardless, it will be shockingly different without the All-American behind center. Lunt should have solid hands to catch his passes however, with Terriun Crump returning after catching 56 balls for 888 yards last year. SDSU fans may remember Senatus as the tall streak who caught 10 balls for 125 yards and two scores last year in Brookings but Crump actually had 183 yards on 10 catches, including a 46-yard touchdown reception.

Running back Caulton Ray will lead the Leathernecks on the ground, regardless of how the passing game shapes up. The Michigan State transfer from January 2010, Ray will attempt to give WIU its ninth-straight season with a 1,000 yard rusher and he's proved he can do it after rushing for 1,075 last season.

Defense
Western Illinois led the MVFC in passing defense in 2010 and that should be the goal again for the defensive backs this season, with four returning with at least seven starts from last year. While the Leathernecks proved to be very advantageous in turnover margin category, finishing plus-11, WIU will have a hard time keeping that rate in 2011.

The Leathernecks lose their most experienced players to graduation and a lot is unclear as to how the new starters will play. Defensive lineman Dwight Harris had 30 tackles last year and will likely anchor the line from the defensive end slot in WIU's 3-4 scheme. Kevin Palermo is the unit's leading returning tackler with 52 from last season. Western recorded 19 sacks last season and the players who accounted for 15 of those sacks have graduated.

WIU wide receiver Terriun Crump

Outlook
WIU finished 8-5 last season and very well could finish there again. I don't see the Leathernecks offense being as powerful as in 2010, mainly because Barr was so important to the rest of that offense. On that note, the Leathernecks won't be terrible this season. Ray should solidify their ground game and Lunt will have plenty of passing targets to throw to. He was inconsistent at times when he had his fill-in run two years ago and that will have to be shored up when he is the full-time man. Like most of this conference, Western will find itself in the middle of a crowded group of teams at 6-5 or 5-6 and should be competitive amongst its league peers.



Up Next: Youngstown State
All photos property of Western Illinois Athletics

2011 MVFC Preview: Southern Illinois

The series of Missouri Valley Football Conference previews continues today with Southern Illinois. To read previous MVFC previews, scroll down and view them on the right.

Southern Illinois underachieved in 2010, finishing 5-6 and falling mightily below the preseason ranking of #5 nationally. Remember, Southern Illinois won a share of five MVFC championships from 2003 to 2009. In the same sense, the Salukis might not be where they need to be to compete at that level.

Salukis running back Shariff Harris

Offense
The Salukis are among the few in college football, at any level, who will bring back their entire offensive line and that should be good news for SIU's budding ground game. Center Bryan Boemer, who was named to the All-MVFC 1st Team, headlines the blocking gang that consists of all juniors and seniors.

Shariff Harris stands to benefit from their experience the most after making the All-Newcomer team last season, after transferring from Pittsburgh. Harris had 604 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2010. He may have to compete for carries with former Iowa running back Jewel Hampton, who has had a rough road to Carbondale. He set freshman records for the Hawkeyes in 2008, battled two torn ACL injuries, and ran into some off the field issues before leaving Iowa City in December. If the pair can co-exist in the backfield, Southern Illinois is going to be problem to try to stop on the ground.

Paul McIntosh will be the starter in Week 1 and he has experience in the role. The junior transferred from Army in 2008 and proved he can direct the offense in 2009, leading SIU to a 5-1 record and a #1 ranking nationally at the time. He's a former Mr. Football in Indiana, so there's no doubt the talent is there. SIU will be an uncertainty at wide receiver, as they are now without Joe Allaria and Jeff Evans, both of whom provided quality options throughout their careers.

Defense
Southern Illinois' defense should have an improved defense, despite returning only six starters from 2010. The Salukis return all four of their starting linebackers, led by Joe Okon, who can boast of having the most tackles last year of any defender coming back. The secondary will miss having Korey Lindsey at cornerback, who leaves Little Egypt as a three-time All-American and a seventh-round selection of the Cincinnati Bengals. Look for Nick King to step up after he missed the final five games of last season with a knee injury.

SIU was good enough on defense at times and at other moments was sketchy at best. Southern Illinois had back-to-back losses to SE Missouri State and Youngstown State, where they gave up 21 and 31 unanswered points, respectively. They had two three-game losing streaks and if they can over come that inconsistency this year, they should improve on that 5-6 record.

SIU head coach Dale Lennon

Outlook
Dale Lennon has a proven track record as a winner. He had success at North Dakota and won the Valley in his first two season in Carbondale. Based purely off of history, you can count on Southern Illinois playing better this season. Whether or not that equates to wins, time will tell.

That makes deciding where to place the Salukis before the season starts that much more difficult. Phil Steele, the college football guru whom I trust immensely, has Southern Illinois at #17 in his preseason Top 40 poll. To me, that seems high but I can see this team finishing second or third in the conference and qualifying for the postseason. Ultimately, I feel SIU finishes in the middle of the pack and can move up if McIntosh can replicate his 2009 performance and find some viable receiving options.

Up Next: Western Illinois
Photos: (Top/Dan Kopp--Bottom/SIU Media Relations)

2011 MVFC Preview: Northern Iowa

My preview of Missouri Valley Football Conference teams continues with Northern Iowa today. Prior previews can be found on the right side of the page.

I could just start and finish this preview right now by saying that "UNI is really good and is the favorite to win the conference." While the above does pretty much sum up the passerby's view of the Panthers, I wouldn't be doing UNI justice. The Panthers are the conference's defending champions but found themselves on the wrong end of a 14-7 decision in the first round of the FCS playoffs last year at the UNI-Dome. With 18 returning starters, UNI has some unfinished business to take care of if they want to be more than just a footnote in conference history.

UNI quarterback Tirrell Rennie

Offense

Life is not rough for the Panther offense right now, especially since nearly everyone returns from an offense that averaged 382 yards per game last year. Tirrell Rennie starts at quarterback and he is a terrific dual-threat quarterback, rushing for 1,291 yards and 15 touchdowns and passing for 1,526 yards and eight touchdowns in 2010. To show Rennie's importance, UNI ran 760 plays last year and the quarterback either threw it or carried it 400 times. Running back Carlos Anderson helps to form solid duo in the backfield and with four of last year's five offensive linemen returning, both of these players should be effective in moving the UNI ground game. Leading receiver Jarred Herring will likely be the primary target after catching five touchdowns last year.

It should be noted that UNI finished 7-5 last year, so what went wrong? The Panthers were actually pretty bad once they got inside the 20 yard-line. UNI scored on 30 of their 45 trips (67 percent) to the red zone last season, which is fairly low and opponents scored 84 percent of the time last year when inside the 20 against UNI. The Panthers scored touchdowns 17 of 45 red zone possessions in 2010 and UNI will have to be better than that this year.

UNI safety Andre Martin

Defense
UNI loses its leading tackler from 2010, linebacker Jamar Thompson but with the Panthers returning 10 starters, the defense should remain stout. Darren Branch, Ben Boothby, and Will Eilert return to form the defensive line, with Boothby leading the line with 9.5 sacks last year. L.J. Fort had 92 tackles last year and will likely lead the linebacking corps and safety Andre Martin, who had 77 tackles as a freshman last year will do the same in the secondary.

UNI could afford to be a little more consistent on defense. In their two MVFC losses last year, UNI gave up 45 points in an overtime loss to Southern Illinois and lost 30-14 to Western Illinois in the regular season finale. It may be nitpicking when UNI gave up an average of 21 points per game last year but it's not a stretch to say that the best teams will play consistently from week to week.

Outlook
For all that's been said about UNI and how great they could be, there's a decent chance that they start the season at 0-2. The Panthers will head to Ames to take on in-state rival Iowa State, following that up by partaking in a rematch with Stephen F. Austin. The Leathernecks beat UNI, 22-20 in Cedar Falls last year and this will likely be a premier non-conference matchup in the FCS.

The pressure is squarely on UNI to win the conference and they will be the going away preseason favorite when the poll is released. Considering the relative parity in the Valley, I would expect at least one loss for the team that wins the conference, UNI or not. Without question, this team has the potential to do all of that and be in the running late in the year for a national championship. The difference will mean that the Panthers will have to handle crunch time better than last year.

Up Next: Southern Illinois (No South Dakota St. preview. More can be read on the Jackrabbits in the coming weeks.)
All photos by the Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier

2011 MVFC Preview: North Dakota State

My preview of Missouri Valley Football Conference Teams continues with North Dakota State today. To read prior entries, look for them on the right side of the page. 

A year ago, NDSU was close. Up seven points with over two minutes to go, 90 yards from a home FCS semifinal close. As you can see in the video above, that didn't happen. Eastern Washington rallied on the snowy red turf to defeat NDSU in overtime, 38-31, after quarterback Brock Jensen fumbled near the goal-line on the game's final play. As the cliche goes, the rest is history and Eastern Washington ended the season with a 21-19 victory over Delaware for the National Championship. It proved to be a bitter end to NDSU's first FCS playoff trip but it certainly sets the stage for an interesting season ahead for newly-paid head coach Craig Bohl and the Bison.

Offense

NDSU may have been unsure of their running situation at this time a year ago but that part of the offense will not be a worry thanks to D.J. McNorton. He entered the season with just four career starts but ended the 2010 campaign with 1,559 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, effectively serving as a tough, all-purpose running back for NDSU. The Bison offensive line remains mostly intact, with only the left tackle to be replaced and that should mean more ground game success in 2011. 

Jensen figures to be the starter on when the season starts on Sept. 3 and that has become quite clear since the end of spring practice. Jose Mohler, the quarterback that started last season and helped the Bison to a win over Kansas, transferred when he slipped to third on the depth chart during the spring. Simply put, it’s Jensen’s team now. He battled injuries last year, had seven starts last season and provided he can facilitate the offense effectively without turning the ball over, he should be fine. Senior Warren Holloway has led the Bison receiving corps for the last two years and figures to do the same this fall.

Defense 

Bison linebacker Preston Evans

I’m a huge fan of NDSU’s defense, mainly because it is stacked with talent and returns eight starters from last year. It starts with defensive end Coulter Boyer, who had 10 sacks last year, 18 hurries, and stood out in the Dakota Marker game with an interception return for a touchdown. Senior middle linebacker Preston Evans led the Bison with 95 tackles last year and directs NDSU’s Tampa 2 scheme. Safeties Colton Heagle and Daniel Eaves and cornerback Marcus Williams lead a secondary that will likely be among the Valley’s best. 

Last year, the Bison held opponents to 18.2 points per game and averaged +1.07 in turnover margin, ranking 7th nationally in both categories. Judging by recent success, including 2008, when NDSU led the nation in pass defense and rated 5th in total defense, the Bison will be near those marks again.

Outlook

Of those who attend SDSU, I will likely give the most positive or honest review of the school’s northern rivals but this is a time that is deserving of that distinction. NDSU will have to be stable at quarterback if they want to have a deep run and they can't afford to be hampered with issues at that spot. 


Most conference followers will agree that the conference title has to go past UNI, a team that the Bison has never defeated since joining the MVFC. NDSU hosts the Panthers on October 29th, which would be in the second game of an important four-game stretch that includes traveling to play the Jackrabbits, at Indiana State, and home against Youngstown State. NDSU will travel to Minnesota on September 24, with the intent of invading TCF Bank Stadium and knocking off the Gophers for a second time in three FCS tries. The Bison can count on both of those efforts to be more difficult this time around, with a smaller stadium now compared to the Metrodome and a much more disciplined team under Jerry Kill.

The Bison faithful have sky-high expectations for this team to, not only make the FCS playoffs but to make a deeper run towards a FCS title. However, if this team learned anything from last year’s sudden halt, it’s that there are no guarantees. 


Up Next: A preview of Northern Iowa
Photo property of NDSU Media Relations

2011 MVFC Preview: Missouri State

My previews of the Missouri Valley Football Conference continues today with Missouri State. For previews of Illinois State and Indiana State, click on the link on the right side of the page.

There's no good way to replace an All-American offensive tackle who will play for the Dallas Cowboys this year. There is not an easy way to explain that nearly 60% of the total offense from last year is gone and that 13 of the 22 starters from 2010 will not return. Missouri State hasn't made the playoffs since 1990 and that wait will likely continue, as Terry Allen tries to build a squad that will compete in the Valley.

The seat is heating up for Allen, who enters his sixth season as coach of the Bears. He is not finding the success at Missouri State that he found at UNI in the early 1990s, when he went 75-26 and appeared in the NCAA playoffs seven straight years before parlaying that into a tenure at Kansas.

Offense
The aforementioned All-American tackle is David Arkin, who simply was the best offensive lineman in the MVFC last year and was drafted in the fourth round by America's Ex-Team. (Pardon the Cowboys cheap shot.) Arkin's graduation wouldn't hurt nearly as badly if he were the only one leaving, but the other tackle, a guard, and last year's center all graduated this past spring.

Missouri State running back Chris Douglas

Having a strong offensive line, MSU finished 13th in the FCS in total offense in 2010 and Missouri State will have a hard time reaching that mark without their Cody Kirby, their four-year starter at quarterback who also graduated. I was extremely impressed by Kirby last year when Missouri State played at SDSU and even though the Jacks won handily, Kirby showed poise in the pocket and delivered a good ball to receivers. The Bears now turn to Trevor Wooden, a 6'2" sophomore from High Springs, Fla. to get the first crack at the starting spot. Wooden started 10 games last year at wide receiver, so he should have a good handle on the spread offense, despite only having thrown two passes in his career.

The good news for Missouri State is they have some great pieces to surround a young quarterback like Wooden, starting with 1,000-yard rusher from a year ago, Chris Douglas. He will likely form half a two-headed attack with Stephen Johnston, as the pair combined for 1,803 yards and 16 touchdowns last year. Jermaine Saffold is the leading returning receiver for the Bears and should form a solid 1-2 attack along with Cadarrius Dotson on the outsides.

Defense
Youth and experience will hold back a Missouri State defense that loses seven starters from last year. The 2010 version of the Bears defense struggled plenty last season, giving up 35 or more points six times last season. It's possible though, that the Bears found something in the season finale, when they held North Dakota State to 120 yards of total offense and won 3-0 in Springfield, baffling Bison fans.

Mikel Ruder returns for his senior season but he will also have to adjust moving out from nose tackle to defensive end in the 3-4 scheme. The bright side is that the Bears bring back both of their cornerbacks, Jimmie Strong and Howard Scarborough, in a conference that can find itself pass-happy at times. The secondary can only improve after the team finished last in the FCS regarding pass defense. There are a lot of new faces and that means a skeptical approach to the defense until they hit the field.

Outlook
I've said my peace about Missouri State playing at Arkansas and at Oregon in September this season. They are doing this to help the athletic department financially, which is noble and can be somewhat admired but it's hard to wrap your head around when you think about how good those teams are.

If Allen can groom his quarterback to utilize the tools around him, the offensive side will be fine. The defense is worrisome but improving to the middle of the pack would be a big improvement and help this team immensely. Last year, keeping in line with conference form, Missouri State was 5-0 at home, 0-6 on the road and finished in that massive logjam for third place. I don't see the same level of success as last year but the Bears should be competitive in the league. MSU won't play at home until October 1 and surely by then, we'll have a good sense of where the Bears will be at this season.

Up Next: A preview of North Dakota State
Photo is property of Missouri State Athletics