2011 MVFC Preview: Missouri State

My previews of the Missouri Valley Football Conference continues today with Missouri State. For previews of Illinois State and Indiana State, click on the link on the right side of the page.

There's no good way to replace an All-American offensive tackle who will play for the Dallas Cowboys this year. There is not an easy way to explain that nearly 60% of the total offense from last year is gone and that 13 of the 22 starters from 2010 will not return. Missouri State hasn't made the playoffs since 1990 and that wait will likely continue, as Terry Allen tries to build a squad that will compete in the Valley.

The seat is heating up for Allen, who enters his sixth season as coach of the Bears. He is not finding the success at Missouri State that he found at UNI in the early 1990s, when he went 75-26 and appeared in the NCAA playoffs seven straight years before parlaying that into a tenure at Kansas.

Offense
The aforementioned All-American tackle is David Arkin, who simply was the best offensive lineman in the MVFC last year and was drafted in the fourth round by America's Ex-Team. (Pardon the Cowboys cheap shot.) Arkin's graduation wouldn't hurt nearly as badly if he were the only one leaving, but the other tackle, a guard, and last year's center all graduated this past spring.

Missouri State running back Chris Douglas

Having a strong offensive line, MSU finished 13th in the FCS in total offense in 2010 and Missouri State will have a hard time reaching that mark without their Cody Kirby, their four-year starter at quarterback who also graduated. I was extremely impressed by Kirby last year when Missouri State played at SDSU and even though the Jacks won handily, Kirby showed poise in the pocket and delivered a good ball to receivers. The Bears now turn to Trevor Wooden, a 6'2" sophomore from High Springs, Fla. to get the first crack at the starting spot. Wooden started 10 games last year at wide receiver, so he should have a good handle on the spread offense, despite only having thrown two passes in his career.

The good news for Missouri State is they have some great pieces to surround a young quarterback like Wooden, starting with 1,000-yard rusher from a year ago, Chris Douglas. He will likely form half a two-headed attack with Stephen Johnston, as the pair combined for 1,803 yards and 16 touchdowns last year. Jermaine Saffold is the leading returning receiver for the Bears and should form a solid 1-2 attack along with Cadarrius Dotson on the outsides.

Defense
Youth and experience will hold back a Missouri State defense that loses seven starters from last year. The 2010 version of the Bears defense struggled plenty last season, giving up 35 or more points six times last season. It's possible though, that the Bears found something in the season finale, when they held North Dakota State to 120 yards of total offense and won 3-0 in Springfield, baffling Bison fans.

Mikel Ruder returns for his senior season but he will also have to adjust moving out from nose tackle to defensive end in the 3-4 scheme. The bright side is that the Bears bring back both of their cornerbacks, Jimmie Strong and Howard Scarborough, in a conference that can find itself pass-happy at times. The secondary can only improve after the team finished last in the FCS regarding pass defense. There are a lot of new faces and that means a skeptical approach to the defense until they hit the field.

Outlook
I've said my peace about Missouri State playing at Arkansas and at Oregon in September this season. They are doing this to help the athletic department financially, which is noble and can be somewhat admired but it's hard to wrap your head around when you think about how good those teams are.

If Allen can groom his quarterback to utilize the tools around him, the offensive side will be fine. The defense is worrisome but improving to the middle of the pack would be a big improvement and help this team immensely. Last year, keeping in line with conference form, Missouri State was 5-0 at home, 0-6 on the road and finished in that massive logjam for third place. I don't see the same level of success as last year but the Bears should be competitive in the league. MSU won't play at home until October 1 and surely by then, we'll have a good sense of where the Bears will be at this season.

Up Next: A preview of North Dakota State
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