Editor's Note: Travis Kriens is good friend of Traxler's Take and staff assistant for media relations at Tennessee State University. He is also a voter in the weekly Sports Network Top 25 FCS Poll.
What is the purpose of polls in sports?
In every sport not named Football Bowl Subdivision level college football, a playoff at the end of the regular season decides the eventual champion. FBS is also the only sport that takes the top two teams at the end of the regular season and faces them off to determine that season’s champion. Besides that, what is the reason we rank teams week after week?
In this week’s Football College Subdivision media poll, there are two examples of confusion.
South Dakota State is the first team receiving votes outside of the Top 25 and has a 5-2 record. Indiana State is ranked #15 and has a 6-2 record. These two teams played last month in Terre Haute, Ind., and Jacks soundly defeated the Sycamores, 24-10. Those that have Indiana State ranked over SDSU will argue ISU’s 17-14 win at then #1 North Dakota State is proof the Sycamores are the better team. I would argue the 14 points win for SDSU when the two teams faced each other is the reason why I have SDSU (#20) ranked ahead of Indiana State (#21).
There is a similar situation in the Ohio Valley Conference. #18 Eastern Kentucky is 6-2, while #21 Tennessee State is 7-1. TSU defeated EKU 23-20 less than three weeks ago. How you can have EKU ranked ahead of TSU when the two teams played recently and EKU lost is beyond me.
In a month's time, the regular season will be over and this won’t matter much because the FCS selection committee will take over. They'll select the 20 teams that will qualify for the 2012 playoffs and have a chance at the national championship. The polls at that point are meaningless. There will be a few teams inside the Top 20 that don’t qualify and a few teams outside the Top 20 that will and that's far from unusual.
It should be noted that the weekly coaches' poll is no better when it comes to ranking teams. So what is the purpose of ranking these teams week after week?
"I think the polls capture the national landscape,” said Craig Haley, who is The Sports Network Senior Editor/FCS Executive Director. “I think they are a guide for the members of the FCS playoff committee, but strength of schedule and results are important."
There are 121 universities that play at the FCS level. That’s a lot of teams to keep track of, so if the Top 25 does anything, it is used as a barometer. You may watch one or two FCS games a week from start to finish. How do the voters keep track of them and know that team A is better than team B or better than team C?
"Well, so much information is at the tip of our fingers with the Internet, so it's easy to be informed,” Haley said. “I send out a scoreboard to the voters before they vote. Over time, a team's scores usually reflect what kind of team it is."
That is really the only way to do a national poll the takes into account such a large quantity of teams. However, there is no way to watch the amount of games that you would need in order to make an informed and fair decision. As we know, the box score, the stats and the final score don’t always tell the story.
So who makes up the voting population?
"I hope all the voters are objective because The Sports Network wants a widespread panel reflecting all the FCS conferences,” Haley explained. “We have about 175 voters. Personally, I value the bigger conferences a bit more on my ballot, but I like schools that play a tougher schedule."
"I think the depth of the poll speaks volumes,” Haley continues. “We've been around a long time and the FCS schools respect The Sports Network. But in addition to the media, we have voters who are SIDs (Sports Information Directors). I think that can cause a problem if a voter tries to favor his school and conference. I see the ballots and it's not rampant, but it happens."
In last week’s poll, Georgia State picked up their first win of the season to improve to 1-6. They received 23 points in the poll, which is the same as voting a team third in the country. It’s no coincidence that Georgia Southern is a top ranked team and that whoever put Georgia State third meant to put Georgia Southern. Those are the kind of mistakes that can’t and shouldn’t be made by a voter.
Why do voters punish teams for losing to higher ranked teams? For example, if #15 loses to #1, why is #15 dropped in the polls the next week? Are they any worse of a team because they lost a game everyone expected them too? You, the voter, placed them at #15, which says that you don’t think they are as good as the #1 team or any team above them.
Late in September, #21 Montana lost to #7 Eastern Washington on the road by six points and dropped out of the Top 25 to #28. They dropped seven spots for losing a close game that they were expected to lose.
The most polarizing team early in the season was Northern Iowa. A top 10 team in the preseason poll, the Panthers lost four of their first five games to Big Ten foes Wisconsin (26-21) and Iowa (27-16), #3 ranked Youngstown State (42-35) and then #1 NDSU (33-21). Four games that Northern Iowa was not expected to win, all on the road expect for NDSU. People could not figure out how someone could vote for UNI despite being 1-4. They didn’t lose any games to anyone ranked lower than they were. If you vote with the philosophy of ranking the teams one through 25 based on who you think is better, it’s not that far-fetched to consider the Panthers as a ranked team. They did defeat SDSU this past Saturday 27-6 to knock the Jacks out of the polls.
Polls are most prevalent in college sports but in recent years they have made their way into professional sports.
I don’t know of many things that are a bigger waste of time than putting together or reading NFL power rankings. They matter about as much as your single vote in the upcoming November elections. At the end of the season, the teams with the most wins make the playoffs. End of discussion.
That is not the case in college sports. With so many teams and a wide variety of schedules, you just can’t go by wins and losses. Recently, it seems like voters don’t even go by that anymore.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Sunday, October 14, 2012
The Second Season
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| Zach Zenner has led the Jackrabbits to the top of the Missouri Valley. |
It was never out of the question but it wasn't exactly on my mind at the beginning of the season. Yet that's the case. A couple key takeaways from the season so far and what lies ahead.
Defense
Conversation follows running back Zach Zenner a lot and that's certainly deserved but SDSU's defense deserves more credit than ever. Saturday's 31-10 win over Western Illinois was another example of the unit making the plays when it counted. Honestly, I didn't think the defense would be this good this season. Saturday, Skyler Luxa turned the tide with his third quarter INT return for touchdown and the Jacks made the stops to get off the field when they needed to. WIU's only offensively-generated points came on a 16 play drive, spanning 7 minutes in the second quarter resulting in a field goal. If SDSU can defend like this the rest of the year, they can win the conference.
Zenner
He's very good, isn't he? Incredible ability to break a big run and one almost expects him to score once he reaches the linebacker level. Western Illinois was a good example of how a running back usually sets up the big run, smashing the defense for short run after short run until he breaks one in the fourth quarter to finish the win. Zenner has spoiled the Jacks by breaking big runs early in the game, giving the team a big boost. The comparisons to Kyle Minett date back almost 18 months from the first time I heard it and he's surpassed that level this season. 2,000 yards is not out of the question here and that would be unreal for a sophomore. The offensive line has been really good all season in the run game and they deserve almost all of the credit as well.
Pass game
Austin Sumner's struggles continue. He's had a lot of crazy interceptions off of deflections and having the ball ripped away from the receiver like against Western Illinois. He's also thrown a couple right to the defensive backs for pick-6's. There's some clear miscommunication there between the receiver and quarterback. I thought Sumner was good on the short passes Saturday but it has to be disconcerting to have those issues plaguing the team in game #6.
SDSU might be able to use the first two points to get around the third but that won't work in every game. One has to consider where SDSU would be without their run game.
Remaining schedule:
The gauntlet is challenging the rest of the way and my outlook on the final five games changed considerably after Saturday's games.
Oct. 20 - at Northern Iowa: A very complex meeting next week in Cedar Falls. The Panthers are 1-5 and are certainly looking for answers. The Jackrabbits will come as a confident bunch but they haven't had much success at the UNI-Dome (SDSU hasn't won at UNI since 1978). For as much as UNI has struggled this season, there's still plenty of reasons for the Jacks to be on alert, starting with running back David Johnson. It's also homecoming for the Panthers.
Oct. 27 - Youngstown State: A Hobo Day meeting with the Penguins for the second time in three years, SDSU has a good chance of defeating YSU in front of a big crowd. Youngstown State is well-rounded and won't be fazed coming to Brookings but the complexion of this game has changed after back-to-back losses for YSU to NDSU and Southern Illinois.
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| What are the chances we see this scene repeated in Fargo this year? |
Nov. 10 - at NDSU: If both teams go into that game with one loss, it will be the biggest game in the history of the series. Stakes will be high and I still believe NDSU is the best team in the conference. They killed themselves against Indiana State. Tensions will be high for the Dakota Marker. This game has been sold out since August with high interest in Fargo and I can't wait.
Nov. 17 - USD: A big game. USD's season ended yesterday with an unreal collapse at Missouri State. They don't have much to play for other than the rivalry game at the end of the year. SDSU's winning streak is the best thing that could happen on the Jacks' end because it will keep the talk off this game for a while yet. Jacks should also thank USD for joining the league this year because otherwise SDSU would have Illinois State in the final five games as well.
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Fargo sportswriter Jeff Kolpack tweeted earlier this month that SDSU's loss to Kansas looks like a bad one now. I still don't believe that fully, given that KU is a BCS conference opponent after all, but the Jacks probably would like a do-over on that one.
I still don't know what SDSU's playoff chances truly are. We know 8-3 gives you a better chance to make the 20-team field than 7-4. SDSU only has one signature road win this season (at Indiana State), so UNI looms large. I'm also curious if SDSU is saving up bid money to buy a home playoff game if they make the postseason.
The only thing we know is SDSU has matched its win total in each of the last two seasons. John Stiegelmeier approaches each week separately, so I'll say it: The season starts now.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Kriens: Will The Vikings' Success Last?
Publisher's Note: The blog has been admittedly stale for a while and
for that, I do apologize. Fortunately, Sports Lounge empire creator and
Tennessee State guru Travis Kriens has volunteered his knowledge
to these dormant pages. Today, Kriens picks apart the first five games
of the 2012 Vikings and what it could mean for the rest of the season.
Many are surprised at the Minnesota Vikings’ 4-1 start. They have already won more games than the three they won last season with many of the key players from the 2011 team back. But will their success last?
Minnesota has been favored in three of their first five games, which they are 2-1. They pulled the upset a home against San Francisco in Week 3 and another Vegas upset at Detroit in Week 4, even though the Lions left the field that day losers in 10 of their last 16 games overall. The 49ers are the only team that the Vikings have played that has a better than .500 record. They have beaten the teams that they should beat thus far. Take into account they lost a game to the Colts that could have easily been a win and won a game versus San Francisco that most thought would be a loss, it’s not too much of a stretch to picture this team at the current 4-1 record.
Minnesota has benefited from fast starts by scoring first in every game except the opener versus Jacksonville and only trailing by more than nine points on one occasion. The question then becomes, “Who gets the credit?”
A lot of the praise has gone on second year quarterback Christian Ponder. Like usual, the quarterback gets more credit when the team wins (especially when you are named Tim Tebow) and more blame than he deserves when the team loses (especially when you are named Tim Tebow) and this is no different.
Christian Ponder has an average depth of target of 5.9 yards, which is nearly a yard less than any other starting NFL quarterback. His first interception of the season came in the second quarter of game five, which is impressive. However, it’s like being impressed that a contact hitter in baseball doesn’t strikeout that often. It should be no surprise that with the short passing game the Vikings have implemented, they are tied for first in the NFL with only five dropped passes on the season. I would be more apt to focus on other areas of the team that have improved from last season, as well as a player that is among the leagues elite.
The defense has allowed only 79 points, an average of 15.8 per game and good for sixth best in the league. Only twice since 1978 has a Minnesota defense given up fewer points in its first five games. (The Vikings gave up 60 points in 1986 and 71 points in 1988)
Part of the defensive resurgence has been rookie safety Harrison Smith. He has been one of the best pass coverage safeties in the league thus far. Add a healthy Antoine Winfield to the mix and the Vikings secondary is in rare form through the first third of the season.
One of the many weak points on the 2011 Vikings was the offensive line. You haven’t heard much about them this season, which usually means they are doing their job. Minnesota has found a gem in John Sullivan. The 6th round pick from Notre Dame in 2008 has developed into one of the best centers in the game and is showing why he deserved the 5-year, $25 million contract extension that he signed late last season. Sullivan is the only starting center in the NFL to have not given up a QB pressure this season. He’s had only one penalty called against him since the 2010 season, a stretch of 36 games. The Vikings know that Sullivan can also get it done in the run game, evident with a third of their rushing attempts coming to the right or left of Sullivan, by far the most on the team.
Rookie kicker Blair Walsh has one of the strongest legs in the NFL. No one has a longer average distance on their kickoffs, which has resulted in only 10 kick returns in 27 chances. Walsh’s leg is a far cry from the 19 touchbacks from Ryan Longwell last year. Only 23 percent of Walsh’s kickoffs have been returned compared to over 70 percent for Longwell in 2011. For someone who had accuracy trouble during his college days with Georgia, the rookie has connected on 12 of his first 13 field goals, including all three attempts from over 50 yards.
Given all the improvements and first year guys making an impact, the player that I feel has had the most impact on the Vikings 4-1 start is Percy Harvin. The way that the Vikings offense has been constructed this season (short passing game), should somewhat be because of Harvin. Nearly 80 percent of his 407 receiving yards have come after he catches the ball, which is a perfect complement for a quarterback that rarely throws the ball down the field more than five yards. Most receivers not named Troy Williamson should be able to catch the short passes that Harvin is accustomed to, but it takes a special player to turn an ordinary play into a game breaking one. The fourth-year wide receiver out of Florida has caused 14 missed tackles on the season. No other receiver in the league has more than nine and only four wideouts have more than five. It’s usual for a receiver to be in the MVP discussion, but the way that Harvin affects the game in the backfield running the ball, as well as a returner, makes him the most versatile player in the NFL.
The Vikings only plays two games outdoors (at Washington and Seattle) besides their annual visits to Chicago and Green Bay. It’s the fewest outdoor games in a full season in team history. Whenever Minnesota plays without a roof, it usually spells doom.
Minnesota broke a five game losing streak in outdoor games with their 33-26 win at Washington late last season, which cost them the chance to draft QB Robert Griffin III or trade the pick for numerous first round selections for years to come. They will get chance to see the defending Heisman Trophy winner on Sunday and wonder what could have been.
Early season success has fans hopeful, while other veteran observers of the purple are thinking, “Here we go again.” For this Vikings fan, I won’t be disappointed this time when they fall short.
Many are surprised at the Minnesota Vikings’ 4-1 start. They have already won more games than the three they won last season with many of the key players from the 2011 team back. But will their success last?
Minnesota has been favored in three of their first five games, which they are 2-1. They pulled the upset a home against San Francisco in Week 3 and another Vegas upset at Detroit in Week 4, even though the Lions left the field that day losers in 10 of their last 16 games overall. The 49ers are the only team that the Vikings have played that has a better than .500 record. They have beaten the teams that they should beat thus far. Take into account they lost a game to the Colts that could have easily been a win and won a game versus San Francisco that most thought would be a loss, it’s not too much of a stretch to picture this team at the current 4-1 record.
Minnesota has benefited from fast starts by scoring first in every game except the opener versus Jacksonville and only trailing by more than nine points on one occasion. The question then becomes, “Who gets the credit?”
 |
| Christian Ponder: Not bad |
Christian Ponder has an average depth of target of 5.9 yards, which is nearly a yard less than any other starting NFL quarterback. His first interception of the season came in the second quarter of game five, which is impressive. However, it’s like being impressed that a contact hitter in baseball doesn’t strikeout that often. It should be no surprise that with the short passing game the Vikings have implemented, they are tied for first in the NFL with only five dropped passes on the season. I would be more apt to focus on other areas of the team that have improved from last season, as well as a player that is among the leagues elite.
The defense has allowed only 79 points, an average of 15.8 per game and good for sixth best in the league. Only twice since 1978 has a Minnesota defense given up fewer points in its first five games. (The Vikings gave up 60 points in 1986 and 71 points in 1988)
Part of the defensive resurgence has been rookie safety Harrison Smith. He has been one of the best pass coverage safeties in the league thus far. Add a healthy Antoine Winfield to the mix and the Vikings secondary is in rare form through the first third of the season.
One of the many weak points on the 2011 Vikings was the offensive line. You haven’t heard much about them this season, which usually means they are doing their job. Minnesota has found a gem in John Sullivan. The 6th round pick from Notre Dame in 2008 has developed into one of the best centers in the game and is showing why he deserved the 5-year, $25 million contract extension that he signed late last season. Sullivan is the only starting center in the NFL to have not given up a QB pressure this season. He’s had only one penalty called against him since the 2010 season, a stretch of 36 games. The Vikings know that Sullivan can also get it done in the run game, evident with a third of their rushing attempts coming to the right or left of Sullivan, by far the most on the team.
Rookie kicker Blair Walsh has one of the strongest legs in the NFL. No one has a longer average distance on their kickoffs, which has resulted in only 10 kick returns in 27 chances. Walsh’s leg is a far cry from the 19 touchbacks from Ryan Longwell last year. Only 23 percent of Walsh’s kickoffs have been returned compared to over 70 percent for Longwell in 2011. For someone who had accuracy trouble during his college days with Georgia, the rookie has connected on 12 of his first 13 field goals, including all three attempts from over 50 yards.
Given all the improvements and first year guys making an impact, the player that I feel has had the most impact on the Vikings 4-1 start is Percy Harvin. The way that the Vikings offense has been constructed this season (short passing game), should somewhat be because of Harvin. Nearly 80 percent of his 407 receiving yards have come after he catches the ball, which is a perfect complement for a quarterback that rarely throws the ball down the field more than five yards. Most receivers not named Troy Williamson should be able to catch the short passes that Harvin is accustomed to, but it takes a special player to turn an ordinary play into a game breaking one. The fourth-year wide receiver out of Florida has caused 14 missed tackles on the season. No other receiver in the league has more than nine and only four wideouts have more than five. It’s usual for a receiver to be in the MVP discussion, but the way that Harvin affects the game in the backfield running the ball, as well as a returner, makes him the most versatile player in the NFL.
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| Barring a collapse, the Vikings could be in contention for the playoffs. |
Minnesota broke a five game losing streak in outdoor games with their 33-26 win at Washington late last season, which cost them the chance to draft QB Robert Griffin III or trade the pick for numerous first round selections for years to come. They will get chance to see the defending Heisman Trophy winner on Sunday and wonder what could have been.
Early season success has fans hopeful, while other veteran observers of the purple are thinking, “Here we go again.” For this Vikings fan, I won’t be disappointed this time when they fall short.